PMG Digital Made for Humans

PMG State of Commerce Report: The 2025 Retail Outlook

February 10, 2025 | 4 min read

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Erica Rix, Strategy Senior Principal

As a Strategy Senior Principal at PMG, Erica Rix is a strategic marketing leader specializing in solving complex business challenges through data-driven media and marketing strategies. She partners with top retail brands to navigate shifting consumer behaviors, optimize investment strategies, and drive measurable business impact across the full funnel. With 19 years of experience in marketing strategy, Erica blends deep industry expertise with a passion for insights and strategic problem-solving, ensuring brands stay ahead in an evolving marketplace.

As we enter the first quarter of 2025, the retail industry is navigating a landscape shaped by economic resilience, shifting consumer behaviors, and the rapid evolution of digital commerce. Last year, steady job growth and rising wages fueled consumer confidence, but persistent inflation and changing global trade policies continue to create an environment of both opportunity and uncertainty.

PMG’s 2025 Retail Outlook provides an in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic trends, emerging technologies, and consumer spending shifts that will define the retail industry in the year ahead. From the growing influence of Gen Z and “silver” consumers to the increasing role of AI-driven personalization and social commerce, this report delivers actionable insights to help brands stay ahead of the competition.

  • Consumer Spending & Behavioral Shifts: How different income and generational groups are influencing the retail landscape.

  • Retail Growth by Category: Forecasted trends across apparel, luxury, home decor, electronics, travel, and health & beauty.

  • Technology’s Impact on Commerce: The role of AI, social commerce, and video in reshaping retail experiences.

  • Economic & Market Dynamics: Key macroeconomic forces, including inflation, interest rates, and policy changes, shaping 2025.

  • Retailer Strategies for Success: How leading brands are adapting with omnichannel strategies, experiential marketing, and data-driven personalization.

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