Guidance for Advertisers Navigating the U.S. Political Landscape

In recent weeks, the American political landscape has been nothing short of tumultuous, marked by unprecedented events with far-reaching implications across industries and institutions. From the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump to President Biden’s unexpected withdrawal from the presidential race and Kamala Harris’s ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket, record ambient noise has permeated the media and consumer market, leading to noticeable shifts in internet behavior and consumer demand. 

The immediate effects of these events on Americans have varied. Pew Research Center reports that more than half (58%) of U.S. adults are following election news closely this year, though 62% already say they are “worn out” by 2024 presidential campaign coverage. Consumer sentiment has remained ambivalent, with consumer confidence readings over the past few months in constant flux. Recent earnings reports show variable spending patterns between healthy consumers and more cautious spenders, a trend influenced by the current state and prolonged effects of the pandemic on culture and the economy, according to analysts. 

As mentioned in previous POVs by the PMG team, historic trends show that consumer spending is not demonstrably swayed by election noise, though it dips slightly in the weeks before and after Election Day. However, consumer spending is impacted by uncertainty (as was seen during the pandemic), and recent events have contributed to a new degree of uncertainty this election season that lacks measurability.

The influence of internet culture on this election cycle has been unmistakably profound, as evidenced by recent trends and pivotal moments. President Biden’s decision to announce his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race via a statement posted to X signified a strategic embrace of digital platforms that cater to real-time engagement, bypassing legacy media and igniting a firestorm of online commentary. The move highlights how political figures are now prioritizing online channels to communicate directly with the public, underscoring a shift where the immediacy and reach of social media are leveraged to shape political discourse in new ways. 

In parallel, the cultural impact of Charli XCX’s new album “Brat” has transcended the music and entertainment industries this summer, influencing not just fashion and TikTok trends but political messaging as well. The album’s aesthetic, celebrated for its bold and rebellious themes, has permeated various facets of popular culture, with Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign swiftly embracing and integrating these elements into her political messaging strategy.

Within days of announcing her presidential bid, Kamala Harris updated her X profile banner, adopting the album’s slime-green theme to resonate with the “brat summer” trend and capitalizing on a new kind of grassroots enthusiasm for the American political landscape. The campaign’s alignment with Gen Z aesthetics and meme culture has resulted in significant online engagement, as seen with the hashtag #kamalaharris trending on TikTok, amassing over 101 million views and thousands of posts within seven days of her announcement. 

A quick scroll through X, TikTok, and YouTube shows young users are particularly engaged with politics and energized to support their favorite candidates. According to the social platform Zelf, posts mentioning Biden or Harris on TikTok last week topped 100,000, receiving a collective 2.5 billion views. On TikTok, 168,000 videos mentioned Trump, receiving a total of 2.7 billion views on the platform. The rise of non-traditional accounts known as ‘news hustlers’ and content creators across text chains and meme pages covering breaking news and politics further illustrates this shifting landscape.

Popular accounts, including @PopCrave and @LizaMinnelliOutlives, were cited by users on X and other platforms for breaking the news of Biden’s departure from the presidential race significantly earlier than traditional media outlets like The New York Times, CNN, and NBC. These digital influencers, who often possess a more relatable and personable online presence and are less encumbered or accountable than a traditional news desk that requires multiple layers of fact checks, are increasingly becoming primary sources of information for younger audiences. 

For brands, navigating this moment requires agility and accounting for the power of internet culture in shaping public opinion. For some, embracing viral trends can transform into unique brand moments, with Kate Spade’s ‘Brat Summer starter pack’ a notable example. Others require maintaining a dynamic and responsive social media strategy to best ensure ad efficiency and brand safety in this digitally driven political climate.

After news of Biden’s departure from the presidential race, analysts revised political ad spending projections for the year. They noted that the political campaign for Kamala Harris is now tasked with reintroducing the Vice President as a Presidential candidate, lifting projections for the remainder of the year across advertising formats and media platforms. AdImpact estimates that prior to dropping out, Biden saw $301 million worth of ad support this cycle, more than double the ad support Trump had received to date. Insider Intelligence and AdImpact estimates U.S. political ad spending will reach anywhere from $10.69 billion to $12.15 billion, a roughly 19 percent increase from 2020 spending trends. 

According to Insider Intelligence, key markets like Philadelphia, Phoenix, and St. Louis are seeing significant ad spending, with fall ad reservations exceeding $1.2 billion in those markets alone. Already, AdImpact reports that spending has surpassed $3.19 billion, topping the $2.61 billion spent at this point in 2020. Insider Intelligence estimates that U.S. Senate races account for $552 million, with Ohio’s Senate race alone expending over $300 million in political ads, making it the second most expensive non-presidential race ever. 

Based on Kamala Harris’s current swell of interest from Gen Z audiences, we expect digital advertising strategies to be a major component of her political spending for the remainder of the race. In advertising, programmatic buying platforms like The Trade Desk may benefit the most from the shift in candidates seeking votes from the nation’s Gen Z population. As more spend hits auction environments, an impact on CPMs for advertisers across categories in market is to be expected.

In the months ahead, brands must demonstrate exceptional agility in the face of a profoundly uncertain political landscape and a rapidly evolving media environment. This entails not only navigating the intricate dynamics of the political climate by staying true to a brand’s core values but also remaining attuned to consumers' ever-shifting sentiments and adjusting advertising messages and media investments accordingly. 

Know Your Brand and Your Customers. Know your brand’s role during this time by understanding your audience and their expectations around the election this year. 

Action, Not Just Words. If your brand takes a controversial or political stance, have a plan to stay accountable to it.

Align Creative and Context. The context surrounding an ad may make your creative and messaging inherently political. Brand safety remains of the utmost importance, particularly during an election year. Lean into creative that reflects your brand’s voice and values, but remember audience perceptions when preparing creative. Consider developing multiple versions of creative and staying agile to shift as necessary. 

Holiday Planning: Election Day coincides with the annual launch timing of early Black Friday promotions. This year, retailers should consider launching promotional timeframes outside of election week to avoid any potential volatile market sentiment. We can expect commercial calendars to adjust, with retailers moving promotions into October and relying more on Cyber Week due to a shorter holiday window.

Agility is Key. Due to potential pricing volatility in auction environments, alongside the potential for polarizing moments and policies on the campaign trail, it’s essential to keep a close eye on efficiencies. Monitor pricing trends and create a fluid budgeting and optimization strategy to allocate dollars where they will have the most impact on your business goals. Prepare in advance with contingency strategies and guardrails to guide optimization. This may include adjusting budgets by platform or broadening audiences to maintain pricing efficiencies.